As India battles Australia in the third Test at Brisbane, their chances of making the World Test Championship (WTC) final are in jeopardy. With the threat of a follow-on looming large and rain disrupting play, both scenarios spell trouble for the visitors. Here’s a breakdown of India’s WTC prospects based on the possible outcomes at the Gabba.
India’s Dire Position at the Gabba
Day 3 at the Gabba saw Australia’s pacers wreak havoc on India’s batting lineup, leaving the visitors reeling at 51 for 4 by stumps. If India fail to score 246 or more and face a follow-on, it would mark the first time in 13 years they have suffered this fate. At the same time, persistent rain has increased the chances of the match ending in a draw, further complicating India’s WTC campaign.
Current WTC Points Table Scenario
After a resounding 295-run victory in Perth, India reclaimed the top spot in the WTC standings. However, a defeat in Adelaide and South Africa’s clean sweep against Sri Lanka pushed India to third place. India must win the Brisbane Test to remain in contention for the WTC final.
What Happens If India Lose?
A loss in Brisbane would deal a significant blow to India’s WTC hopes. Even if they win the final two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney, they would finish with a maximum of 58.8% on the WTC standings. Meanwhile, Australia, currently in second place, could still reach 60.5% if they whitewash Sri Lanka in their upcoming series.
In such a scenario, India’s fate would depend on results from other matches:
Sri Lanka vs. Australia: If Sri Lanka manage to draw or win at least one match against Australia, it would prevent the Aussies from crossing 57%.
Pakistan vs. South Africa: India would also need Pakistan to deliver an upset against South Africa to bolster their chances.
What Happens in Case of a Draw?
If rain forces a draw in Brisbane, India will still have a shot but with a much narrower margin for error. They must secure victories in both Melbourne and Sydney to keep their qualification hopes alive. A series result of 2-2 would leave India at 55.3%, just ahead of Australia’s 53.5%, but only if Sri Lanka defeat Australia 1-0.
The Road Ahead
For India, the equation is clear: they must avoid defeat in Brisbane and target victories in the remaining two matches. At the same time, their hopes are pinned on Sri Lanka and Pakistan delivering surprise results in their respective series. With rain and a potent Australian attack posing challenges, India’s path to the WTC final is anything but straightforward.
