The ongoing Gabba Test between India and Australia is poised for an exciting conclusion, provided the weather remains favorable. After India avoided the follow-on with a determined performance from Jasprit Bumrah and Akash Deep, the spotlight now shifts to Pat Cummins and his team to explore ways to push for a result on Day 5.
While India celebrated their success in avoiding the follow-on, their troubles are far from over. At 252/9, India still trails Australia by 193 runs, with Bumrah and Akash set to resume the innings on the final day. Australia, despite being one bowler short due to Josh Hazlewood’s injury, will aim to wrap up India’s innings quickly to set up a challenging chase.
With rain predicted, multiple outcomes are possible: an Australian win, a draw, or a slim chance of an Indian victory. The big question remains – could Cummins consider forfeiting Australia’s second innings to create an opportunity for a win?
Is a Second-Innings Forfeit Possible?
Yes, the laws of cricket allow a captain to forfeit an innings. According to Law 15.2 of the MCC Rule Book, “A captain may forfeit either of his/her side’s innings at any time before the commencement of that innings.”
For instance, if Australia dismisses India early on Day 5, leaving them with a lead of 193, Cummins could theoretically forfeit the second innings, forcing India to chase 194 to win. While this would make for a dramatic finish, it is highly unlikely that Cummins would take such a gamble, as 194 is a very achievable target for the Indian side.
Australia’s Likely Strategy on Day 5
Realistically, Cummins and the Australian management are expected to adopt a more cautious approach. The focus will likely be on dismissing India’s final wicket early and then adding quick runs in their second innings to set India a target.
With a full day’s play offering up to 98 overs (weather permitting), Australia will aim to give India a target of around 270-300 runs, leaving themselves approximately 60 overs to bowl the visitors out. This strategy would not only put India under pressure but also give Australia enough time to secure a win.
India’s batting has been inconsistent throughout the series, with key players like Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, and Yashasvi Jaiswal struggling to find form. However, chasing at a rate of 4.5-5 runs per over is not an impossible task, and Australia will need to be cautious not to let the game slip away.
What If India Chases a Modest Target?
In the unlikely scenario that Australia forfeits their second innings or sets India a low target of under 200, the game could swing dramatically. While such a chase should theoretically be straightforward for India, their recent history of batting collapses cannot be ignored.
For instance, India’s infamous collapse against New Zealand in Mumbai, where they failed to chase 147 and were bowled out for 121, serves as a cautionary tale. A similar implosion at the Gabba could hand Australia an unlikely victory.
The Road Ahead
With Josh Hazlewood ruled out of the match, Australia will rely heavily on Cummins and Mitchell Starc to shoulder the bowling burden. However, the team also needs to consider workload management, as the next Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) begins in just a week.
If India manages to secure a draw, the series will head to the Boxing Day Test tied at 1-1, setting the stage for an intense battle. On the other hand, an Australian win would give the hosts a crucial lead heading into the penultimate Test.
As the final day unfolds, all eyes will be on how Australia approaches the game and whether the weather plays a decisive role in determining the outcome.
